变压器寿命评估中的特征量分析
包莹1，贺细雄2，章敏1，杜富豪2
（1 国网武汉供电公司，湖北 武汉 430000；2 国网电力科学研究院武汉南瑞有限责任公司，湖北 武汉 430074）
摘 要：基于现场数据，借助回归分析和假设检验的方法，分析了电气数据、油色谱数据和油化实验数据特征量与变压器运行年限之间的关系。研究表明，吸收比、介质损耗、油击穿电压、氢烃含量等数据与变压器运行年限之间的关系很弱，主要反映变压器油的绝缘性能，能有效识别出变压器受潮等整体性的故障，但受滤油和换油的影响，不能有效反映变压器的剩余寿命；CO 和CO2 气体含量与变压器运行年限严格相关，反映变压器固体绝缘状态，是变压器寿命预测的老化特征量，但是滤油或换油会造成碳氧化合物流失，准确确定变压器的寿命终点，还需借助其它手段综合分析。
关键词：变压器；老化；寿命预测；状态评价；特征量
中图分类号：TM401+.1 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1007-3175(2017)02-0018-06
Analysis of Characteristic Quantity for Transformer Life Assessment
BAO Ying1, HE Xi-xiong2, ZHANG Min1, DU Fu-hao2
（1 State Grid Wuhan Power Supply Company, Wuhan 430000, China;
2 Wuhan NARI Limited Liability Company of State Grid Electric Power Research Institute, Wuhan 430074, China）
Abstract: Based on the field data, this paper analyzed the relationship between electric data, oil chromatographic data, oil chemical experiment data and transformer operating life with the help of regression analysis and hypothesis testing. Researches show that absorption ratio, dielectric loss, oil breakdown voltage and hydrogen hydrocarbon content had weak relationship with the transformer operating life. The above parameters mainly reflected the insulation performance of transformer oil and could identify the integral faults such as damp defect etc, but they were influenced by oil filtering or oil change so as not to effectively reflect the residual life of the transformers. The contents of CO and CO2 gases, strictly associated with the transformer operation age limit, reflecting the state of transformer solid insulation, were the
characteristic quantity of transformer residual life prediction. Yet oil filtering or oil change would make carbon-oxygen compound go away. If the transformer residual life prediction needs confirming correctly, analysis should be made with the help of other means comprehensively.
Key words: transformer; aging; life prediction; state evaluation; characteristic quantity
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